ManyMedia

The future is uncertain. A useful tool for looking into the uncertainty is a set of scenarios. Good scenarios explore the extremes of what is likely or possible (but they don’t forecast the future). This blog project uses four scenarios to explore the future of the Internet and communication as we have come to know it.

To start, I define two significant market and political forces that affect the Internet and shape my four scenarios: intellectual property laws and common carrier laws. Tying intellectual property laws to availability of content, and common carrier laws to the proprietary nature and uses of the network, these forces become axes that define four possible worlds:

• Many Walled Gardens: highly competitive, open content but a proprietary and restrictive network,
• Just Route the Bits: open and available content on an open and accessible networks,
• You Will: monopolistic, restricted content on proprietary, restrictive network, and
• The 10,000 Mickeys: monopolistic, restricted content on open and accessible networks.

These four scenarios help me understand where development of our telecommunications future is headed. I made blog for each axis (content and networks) so I can add news about forces that affect these scenarios. I also invite you to participate in the discussion on my related wiki.

Related posts:

1. Redefining Broadband: Not Neutrality
2. Promoting Creativity and Connection
3. The 4 D’s of Incument Telco Public Policy
4. On Going Postal

Scenarios Boundary Spanning, choice, closed networks, controlling content, controlling network, Internet, Net Neutrality, open networks, ownership, Policy, relationships, Scenarios, telecom