WTN conf: Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Nat’l Lab
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley Nat’l Lab: five topics: slowness of change of energy, vital underpinning of the economy, energy as a polluter, 50-100 years, developing world is critical to addressing climate change issues. Way to move forward. Energy tech in this context.
slowness: wood to coal in a century, coal to gas 1/2 century, to nukes (not) after 50 years. On consumer side, could be faster evolution but isn’t. Takes policy, utilty programs. Great capital investments.
Current US economy would not be possible w/out thriving energy systems. 1/3 of the world living on $1-2/day, don’t have modern energy, spend time collecting wastes & wood to support subsistence living. Moral imperative to being modern energy to developing world.
Dark side: local pollution (85% sulphur emissions, 40% lead, from energy), but industrialized contries have demonstrated ability to control pollution, potential to do better. No advantage to develop advanced control tech unless regulatory envt supports it. Haven’t seen this in developing countries, collapse of Soviet Union showed wreckage of environment. Smoke inhalation (1/3 of world uses non-commercial biomass) = 1/5M deaths/year (mostly housewives). Drinking water can be purified kill 2.5-3M children/year. (DI says this is an underestimate.)
Less sanguine about climate change: Intergovernmental … on climate change. .6 degrees climate temp increase, measurable impacts: snowcover redux by 10%, 40% in summer arctic sea ice decrease, precipitation. Global climate models: lower end of sensitivity: 1.5 degrees C, upper limit 4.5 degrees C; about a century’s worth of change. Implications is high uncertainty: if you believe in lower level, we cold double energy use over next 50 years then return to today’s level over next 50 years. At higher level, immediately reduce energy use, linearly reduce to zero over next 50 years. Pernicious policy problem: long term, no impact tomorrow, long term phenomenon, potential grave impacts, grave uncertainty as to when/how to act.
Most growth wil be in developing world. Driving forces: lowest increase in demand (50 years) was 80%, highest case over 100% in energy demand thought to span likely futures. Developing countries don’t have wherewithall to address the problems. Solutions: private $25B, could cut emissions in half, but infrastructure doesn’t exist, no trained people or policy or manufacturing to prmote efficiency. Most countries (carbon emissions) grow faster than econ development. china grows by 9%/year.
Energy technology & efficiency: US 35% growth in GDP, 0 in energy. Now partial decoupling, possible but unlikely to keep energy at 0 cost as policy barrier. Wind 30%/year, no storage. Photovoltaics, other technologies limited, will need more dramatic breakthroughs.
Recommends: pay attention to developing countries, and to R&D.
Related posts: