PTC11: International Wholesale Outlook
January 17, 2011
Program link, with Angela Partington moderating, Joseph Chan, Mark Halbfinger, Will Hughs, and Neil Montefiore.
Introductions all around. Industry is growing, prices dropping. Voice is commoditizing globally, data centers growing around the world. Voice is still core of telecom, data bandwidth 1:1 is email, bulk is Internet data. Video is broadcast, end game for voice is in 1:1 interaction (ISDN, but it wasn’t too successful). Look at IP growth, voice is falling into application bin, predictability is better than other apps, traffic isn’t what I have my eye on for growth planning.
Predictability of bandwidth use: huge impact, bandwidth used by old devices was low, now they’re 30x or 1300x the range. Huge jumps are related to local and national infrastructure. Guam Telecom (122K population) using 1 STEM1 every 60 days now. 4 years ago STEM1/STEM4, now IP forecasted to increase by factor of 4 in 4 years. Planning next needs are challenging, not meeting that need is more challenging. Mobile in Singapore came earlier, signaling was same challenge. In Dec. 2009, # phone cells doubled and more phones (most iPhones), not affecting us as much, we’re less developed. In Hong Kong, we have some serious utilization (highest air line cell services), also bandwidth (sports!). Radio (spectrum limitations) and wifi used to seemlessly between 3G and wifi, placed in phone booths. Massive broadband is broadcast. End-use applications using more data centers.
More people moving to ethernet, requirements will continue to grow. Lots of hype, players; gain access to customers who don’t have access through regular carriers, also a new marketplace. Will be interesting to see how mapping, online markets work, facilitation of how it’s going to happen and be dynamic. Multiple AS, ethernet (is simple), (Marc talking as fast as Joe, hard to follow here), working with 3 of the ethernet exchanges. Lots of enterprise tracking is still migrating, still carrying a lot of frame and telex. Limited bandwidth of major carriers in China, min 10GB.
Goals: we’re still carrying legacy, not necessarily promoting one over another, TDM traffic QoS (VoIP challenges this). Look at diff markets, worlds, apps. First thing to do is measure where each place is in development timeline. Some markets skip certain tech (Africa jumped to mobile). Lots of issues on end-user device. Many are working to set up standards in China. Detect spam and problems. More happening in developing countries.
How to make a profit in all this? It’s not just wholesale, it’s all traffic. Need to change the way we charge things. Look at QoS, what customers want, differentiate. Old models not going to last. Shift from broadcast to unicast, on-demand culture. All devices (TV, digital picture frame, ipod, multi-tasking environment at home) Need to rethink how we’re going to monetize that. Mobile advertising, telcos can monetize delivery of stuff. Organizational structure, deep packet inspection. Variable revenue against variable costs. We’ve depleted voice from equation, need to assure we can create a fixed cost structure for variable revenue. Mostly a last mile issue.
CDN? Belongs on carrier network, challenge is shift in use and source of content.