PTC09: Future of Broadband Mobility
Next session: The Future of Broadband Mobility. Ken Zita (KZ) moderates with speakers Jen-Hon Lin (JHL), Sachio Semmoto (SS), Yoshiyuki Takeda (YT), and Michael Tyler (MT).
Ken Zita:
How about let’s talk about 4G? Broadband mobility is where the future is going. Mobile phones are everywhere. This is about the fast change that affects the social fabric of the world.
The arrival of very high speed and all-IP mobile networks is imminent. “4G” will transform markets and mobile services paradigm worldwide. Ultrabroadband: 160-250MB/s down and 50MB/s up, commercial 2H09.
Impact of broadband on mobile business strategy? remains tied to legacy bandwidth economics” and is relatively untouched by economics of the Internet: switched to packet (open), shift to IP allows service creation of content service independent of access network. Gateways for media downloads vs mere transporters of bits (diff business models).
How will mobile biz models evolve with broadband? On-demand video, P2P, user-generated content and application downloads will displace basic access services (voice) for new revenue growth. Emerging financial models have more moving parts, less revenue certainty (ad hoc revenue events, on-demand content, connectivity, commissions and revenue sharing). Timing the transition of revenue is important. No “net neutrality” for mobile today.
Who owns what? How will network/device/content/brand/web storefronts evolve as mobile experience? Can mobile operators preserve closed ecosystem? Apple, Nokia, Google on integrated, vertical services. Mobile content without networks, who will build the next Apple store?
Search: speed to the handset is exciting but mobile search needs to evolve too. What is required to crate “meaningful” mobile search and net-centric mobile customers? Today, search is a drag. Contextualize with geography and who you are.
Operational challenges: service delivery involves controlling content thru middleware, or finding a way to stay relevant as consumers download content from off-network sites. Technology (networks, layers, content). Video hits local mobile network.
Can Asian mobile SPs globalize? North Asia is streets ahead of the rest of the world in mobile adoption, but past attempts by Japanese and Korean operators have failed. Big difference: mobile content strategies (opening up services), platform for delivering lifestyle services and knowledge uniquely appropriate to local market. Does network scale have a natural or optimal limit re: services that involve local market knowledge and customization?
What does it mean to create a “mobile Internet?”
YK: Widening world of mobile phones (various data types). DoCoMo’s challenge: communication to info access, life assistance, behavior assistance (personalization of services). Number of mobile phone subscribers growing, Mar ‘08 is 102.72M. Ratio of 3G (chart w many countries) is high in Japan.
Frequency chart re: spectrum assignment, present and future (FDD (700-2GHz) and TDD (2-2.5GHz) systems. Devices and Mobile communication systems (illustration). Technology and market trends in Japan all trending higher in all bands, from fixed network services to LTE/Super3G and 4G. Deployment in layers over time, to ultimate status of Super 3G and 4G after 2020.
Trends of Next Gen Systems adopted by Carriers (chart). Change in business models of mobile from vertical integration to open systems (Android, G1 and iPhone, etc.)
JHL: Taiwan mobile market overview: 25.28M mobile users in Nov 2008, penetration 109.8%. Mobile revenue si 59.26% of total telecom market in 2007. Private telecom co, mible WiMax in 2007. Is a full service provider, 97% market share in fixed, mobile 35.5%.
Performance: Netbooks 99% market share, 93% Notebooks and motherboards (chart). Trends and opportunities: fiber to home, LTE/WiMax (converging).
Business model is key: connect to anyone at any time, any place, any devices; ubiquitous network society. Value of networks is proportional to number of subscribers. How could operators realize such value?
SS: The Future of Broadband Mobility
From 10 years ago: fixed broadband. Formed a company then, now sold and doing something else. Now: mobile operator mainly focus on broadband data service (estab. Jan 2005, two directors, lots of outside directors, 3K employees, $4B raised in financing). Now has >1M subscribers. Is different from incumbents: they are mobile company with voice service; his company is mobile broadband service.
Unique biz model: data centric strategy, unique netbook bundling marketing, mobile and fixed bundled service. Efficient network with low running cost, is price leader in mobile broadband service. Not stealing subscribers from incumbents: not stealing voice services, is all data, trending upward.
In PC market, we have created a new demand, “bundled sales of data card and net book.” “Special discounted price: $1-$200 US.” (Net books: ASUS, Acer, Dell, HP, Sony, Toshiba.) Targeting new users by clearly differentiating mobile phones and data. (chart with speed, monthly charge and other: fast speed with low monthly charge.) This is the key.
MT: Four Trends, Fundamental Change (no PowerPoint)
1. Big change in capability of mobile devices. Now powerful processors, versatile radio freq interface that can connect to variety of networks, including phone and data, also makes device mfgrs strategic players.
2. Network layer structure that’s visible to outside world. Implications: service creation not tied to circuit-switched network, or network fabric. Carriers that don’t merely want to carry bits will become app provicers; value on app platforms and tools, resources and tools that can be used.
3. Increasing role of downloading. Mobiles are looking more like the Internet. End-user chooses and uses devices and apps.
4. Emergency of boundary management: boundary between network operator management and outside world, open boundaries. Closed worlds not being successful commercially. Operator has resources at diff layers, other important apps: strong authentication services (to prevent theft of services).
Examples: Eqo (Vancouver) takes over phone book, does dialing via IP network; also provides IM function that is compatible with all major messaging systems.