ManyMedia

This afternoon’s session is described here.

The initial question was about recommendations from the speaker’s perspective to the incoming US Presidential administration. Co-moderators Susan Irwin and Patricia Cooper (MOD), interviewing panelists: John Celli (JC), Peter Jackson (PJ), Jean-Yves Le Gall (JYLG), Yutaka Nagai (YN), and Dean Olmstead (DO).

MOD: Economy is a key driver. Tell me what you think effects of economic downturn have had on industry, how are we doing, what indicators are you following?

DO: big infrastructure projects are of a such a long term nature that current situation is a point. We’re looking to our users and competitors, expansion. As an operator, we have to be prepared to understand the level of risk we’re willing to engage in. Based on users and customers to plan short term.

JYLG: where market needs credit, is more difficult.

YN: established operators have longtime base, no immediate impact. need to look long term. Two concerns: project like geo mobile systems: can they raise enough money to continue? Also some operators will have problems because of increasing satellite costs.

JC: seeing satellite industry has indicators of good health. Mobile systems and other systems, including broadband–lack of capital will put a break on activities and pehaps increase mergers and acquisitions to expand growth. Backlog is healthy. What concerns me: drops of 40% in (?). Risks coming through in last few years. Quite different opinion than 2001, bomb was fast; now much deeper and more global.

PJ: Although certain failures, TV grows, which is a key factor for them. People don’t spend money unless they think their job is safe, so they do see TV companies may not be growing but they’ll continue to grow (esp ads). Asia was example (cultural choice). If values don’t support small and medium-sized enterprises, there might be trouble.

MOD: what are you doing to offset some of the economic problems:

DO: frugal management, how you choose to live. We take advantage of opportunities that are out there, being in a crisis means more of same. When things appear to be slowing, things may change.

JYLG: will introduce something this year. hmm.

YN: Efficiencies of the operation, synergies between companies. No special measures taken.

JC: have a backlog that takes short term pressure, No secret that you must create discretionary expenses, careful spending this year, focus on customers.

PJ: reassure staff that we won’t cut staff, be frugal (a state of mind). Staff treats expenses carefully.

MOD: Money in your pocket, would you spend it? Consolidation in the winds?

JC: question is what’s going to happen to competition.

DO: for most of us, we have luxury to sit back and wait.

YN: possible programs and new satellites being developed, look to parnering.

MOD: #1 priority in Asia Pacific region is pricing. What impact is global economic downturn having?

PJ: may have to visit terms for your customers, but is a real cost and difficult to cut them (failures, launching, etc.). Efficiencies work better than cutting real costs.

YN: price is low enough, no attention to lower price. Japan domestic: no reason to produce.

MOD: Parts of the world having capacity crunch.

DO: old satellites but new company, uses price regardless of economic situation.

MOD: manufacture and launch vehicle costs?

JYLG: even if we are working very hard to provide customers w best quality and abilities, this is still a cost.

JC: prices are going up slightly, Euro going up, vendor prices going up. Our focus is on cost reduction. We’re successful at providing value. Slowdown: military vendors not active in commercial sector but they may come back. We’ve built in so much efficiency that it will be hard to change.

Projects being impacted?

DO: we’re getting relatively good value, if launch cost were on parity wed be pursuing more.

YN: Not a problem (lots in orbit).

MOD: demand-side? where is push coming from?

PJ: everywhere. Interesting thing about TV: once satellite is up the opportunity to serve more is good to provide multi-channel services. Not just electronics at each end, but equipment in between can be quite expensive.

DO: it’s all about video, in different formats (HD, now push for 3D). Inexhaustible demand. Also government increasing needs.

YN: HDTV last October, this fall 70 channels, over 100 channels in 2012.

JC: commercial satellite for non-secure transactions, still have the need for special satellites for secure and other needs (e.g., troops). Scientific apps: testing for certain areas being watched.

JYLG: demand for edcuation, etc.

Questions: demand side: consumers have less to spend, pay TV subscribers (more than one member per household). How to drive this in Asia? Supply side: assume situation continues: how to encourage launches? many projects would be possible.

YN: Not a good idea to get customers who don’t pay, seeking to get good customers.

PJ: advantages of cable over ADSL is bandwidth. In terms of what suppliers can do, make boxes cheaper, esp for reduction in price of second and third boxes. HOng Kong is different, viewership went up during recession.

DO: yes, same in US.

Question: With transponder revenues dragging down, what can transponder, vendors and others do?

JC: fundamentally: strive to reduce costs, provide customers with best value. Work together to better understand what customer wants.

YN: joined satellite operators, can save launch costs.

Question (couldn’t summarize)

DO: dish video business is cash machine.

Q: launch companies; how is your biz changing? Climate change, military activities, are you launching commercial or other service?

JYLG: we’ve launched several satellites lately, observing that size is decreasing

Q: focus on cost and how to make space more accessible, what started change in manufacture model, test philosophies, etc. (?)

JC: standardizing large fleets, but otherwise…

Q: SpaceX? Claim to be able to reduce cost of launch…

JYLG: wait for more successful launches.

DO: good step in the right direction.

SpaceX rep: took fewer launches to get to success, we are in the business to compete.

JYLG: compare tonnage costs.

another SpaceX rep: what portion is launched, what’s a good value of launch service?

DO: about 1/2 of what they are today would be a good price. $60M seems to be the right number. Not analytics.

Where’s doubling of costs?

DO: supply

How to get Hollywood to help reduce costs? (laughter)

Final q: what one word to describe future?

PJ: mobile.
DO: excite
JC: imagination
JYLG: change
YN: TV

Events, Network, Policy future, PTC09, satellite, video

Ten years ago I was attending a meeting of a smallish group of futurists and thinkers. I asked if I could have an introductory moment, something to set the tone. My statement was from Chu, a person from the future.

Thank you for inviting me to speak with your gathering. My name is Chu, I’m 16 years old, and I was just awarded the Sing Low Prize for Creative Thinking in Mathematics. I learned just before I came here that my Sr. High School thesis was downloaded by over 200,000 sites, representing 37 different countries. I’ve gotten feedback from over 120 people, 17 of them rather famous mathemeticians and scientists!

I talked with a couple of my elders before coming here, so I hope I say things you’ll understand and find interesting.

My grandmother told me it used to be different in the old days, but the NetChit I received from the downloads of my paper, combined with the Sing Low prize money, will allow me to attend college for another two years. There’s a local extension on the west end of my town that connects me with the rest of my class. The extension’s computers have multiple big desk and wall screens that enable us to work cooperatively on our assignments and interesting problems. I just plug in my WalkAbout, all the authorship and authenticity is taken care of, and I’m in.

Of course, I’m always online through my WalkAbout, but its operating system and functionality are more geared toward my lifestyle. I have a lot of friends–some of them don’t like math as much as I do. But we all keep in touch a lot.

My great-grandfather told me stories about his parents and how they used to wear their clothes and shoes with big Nike and Disney names on them. I can’t believe that anyone used to be so attached to those big companies of the past. During my great-grandfather’s days, he watched what they used to call “brands” slowly become less popular until at one point he said some companies were almost giving their stuff away! We have seen many examples in the last several decades of how so many big companies struggled and failed to adapt to the new ways. These days, when people want to take on a new persona, they might start out with a Def–a default persona that my great-grandfather says was kinda like a brand name that could be customized.

A couple other things you may be interested in. My grandmother told me you used to have things like digital watermarks and trademarks and such. I never quite understood these things or why anyone would do that. These days, a document’s content is keyed to authorship and authentication factors. The nature of the content is important, sure, but it’s also weighed against bodies of work by those and other authors. When some information is treated as a fact, its origins and context can be traced. Anonymous documents are represented by one or more Surety bodies.

Also, we have a truly global flow of information. The PublicNet is a vast, interconnected bit-pipe with no switches and no editorial controls to slow things down. The artists and other content creators connect directly to interested people. Our terminals, like my WalkAbout, have transaction, crypt, translating, summary, and other editorial preferences set by each user.

I understand you are all meeting to explore these and related concepts in the next couple of days. You can rest assured that meetings like this are happening all over the world, in a furious fashion, and that you have some big battles yet to come. I wish you well in your work–your future is my present and if all goes well, it’s a compelling one.

Thank you again for inviting me.

by Judi Clark
15 September 1998

Thank you to Jerry and others in that group for the opportunity to dream.

Life, Scenarios brands, education, future, Scenarios, wireless

Bob Frankston said it best (about the future of education, intellectual property, R&D, and the future of technology):

From: Bob Frankston
Date: April 24, 2004 12:13:11 PM EDT
To: dave farber
Subject: RE: [IP] more on Losing Our Edge?

This reminds me of the fears about Japan getting the lead in AI because of their fifth generation project. What I fear most are the attempts to keep “the edge” by clamping down on education and assuring that it is highly tuned for the past.

Our lead over the long term is dependent upon not trying to over-tune the educational system for a narrow vision.

It’s our incompetence at imposing the one true solution that has kept us from getting caught up in the local optima.

While the Nobel Prize is far form a perfect indicator I do note that Japan, for example, has very very few in the hard sciences.

This is one reason why I point out that the first amendment is an economic mechanism — it is a way of providing opportunity for stupid ideas. It’s only with enough stupid ideas that we discover the brilliant ones.

I don’t want to defend ignorance but neither do I see a focus on big R&D as the necessarily that much better than a focus on quarterly results. Both are optimized for the present.

The question is what environment is best for leverage individual initiative. Very few such efforts will succeed but that might be enough to seed the future.

Policy, Scenarios education, future, globalization, intellectual property, R&D, research and development, self-determination, technology

The Economist is running a survey/series of articles on the Internet Society, starting with
Digital dilemmas:

Despite the dotcom boom and bust, the computer and telecommunications revolution has barely begun. Over the next few decades, the internet and related technologies really will profoundly transform society, argues David Manasian

… The taste for hyperbole of Mr Barlow, Mr Lessig and their sort may be easy to mock, but they are right in their fundamental claim: the internet and its related technologies are capable of transforming society. Far from being over, the computer and telecoms revolution that created the internet has barely begun. These technologies will change almost every aspect of our lives—private, social, cultural, economic and political. In some areas, the changes may be marginal, but in most they will be profound, and unprecedented.

Other articles in the survey include: No hiding place; Only disconnect; A fine balance; Power to the people; Caught in the net; Through a glass darkly. Worth a look.

Life future, Internet Society, society, transformation